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- guardian.co.uk, Thursday 25 June 2009 00.01 BST
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When the headlines announced "South Carolina governor has been missing for days," it was unlikely that any subsequent news would be good. His wife didn't seem to know where he was. His staff's insistence that he was on a hike to "clear his head" after a gruelling legislative session rang hollow. And why would a father decide he needed to be away from his children – even to complete a "writing project" – on Father's day weekend?
The other shoe has now dropped. Mark Sanford wasn't working on a writing project or hiking the Appalachian Trail. Sanford tearfully confessed on Wednesday that he was in Argentina visiting a woman with whom he'd had an extramarital affair. Whatever the impact on his marriage, this much is clear: The conservative Republican's political career is probably over, and a run for the presidency in 2012 is surely not in the cards.
Cold, cerebral and introspective, Sanford was always an unlikely politician, much less presidential candidate. He doesn't speak in soundbites. He doesn't glad-handle or backslap easily. But with the Republican party leaderless and in disarray following the 2008 elections, Sanford emerged as an improbable voice for fiscal restraint.
Sanford was an early and vocal opponent of President Barack Obama's stimulus package. Unlike other Republican governors who were willing to criticise the price – over $1tn, counting interest – and the pork, Sanford wouldn't even take the money. He fought his state legislature, other statewide elected officials and South Carolina's congressional delegation in an effort to use stimulus funds to pay down the debt rather than increase state spending.
While other Republicans sang happy songs about tax cuts as the deficit ballooned, Sanford recommended the tough medicine of spending cuts to wean the public off its increasing indebtedness. To Sanford, reckless government borrowing and spending wasn't just a fiscal issue, it was a moral issue. Prudence and thrift required the political class to live within its means.
Most importantly, Sanford had credibility on these issues that other Republicans lacked. As a congressman, he continued to vote for less government long after Newt Gingrich's minions lost their revolutionary fervour. He cast lonely, unpopular votes against legislation he deemed unconstitutional. And he opposed Republican-created big government like the Real ID legislation, seen by some civil libertarians as a stepping stone to a national ID card.
In the governor's mansion, Sanford spent most of his time fighting fellow Republicans in the legislature over the size of the state's government. When he was within $16m of eliminating a $155m budget deficit that existed in violation of the state constitution, many of his fellow Republicans told him he had done all he could do. Sanford's response? "I'm sworn to uphold the constitution," he said. "It doesn't say come close and declare victory."
Earlier this year, Sanford told The American Conservative magazine that he dissented on the biggest big-government conservative project of them all: the Iraq war and the project of "benevolent global hegemony" it represents. "I don't believe in pre-emptive war," he said. Sanford's staff pointed out that he did not vote for the Clinton-era bill that made regime change in Iraq the official policy of the United States government.
Sanford caught the attention of economic conservatives like the Club for Growth, who lacked a consistent champion in the 2008 Republican primaries. He was also admired by many Ron Paul Republicans, who wanted a candidate who was for smaller government on civil liberties and foreign policy too but hoped for someone more mainstream – and perhaps more electable – than Dr Paul himself.
But there was always concern that Sanford might be a little too strange for the national spotlight. There were the long, thoughtful pauses before answering questions. The mangling of simple sports metaphors. The need to be alone. And most potentially damaging, his habit of digging holes on his property, which once led to the accidental drowning death of an eight-year-old.
With the revelation of his long-distance affair, it turned out we didn't know the half of it. Mark Sanford will not be a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. There may not be a strong, mainstream contender who will stand against big-government liberalism at home and belligerent neoconservatism abroad. And that's how this private tragedy became a public one too.